Legendary Progress Tracker
Legendary Progress Tracker is used to keep a detailed history of all events completed that may drop a legendary. This add-on predicts how close you currently are to reaching the bad luck protection cap, with around a ~5-8 % max error rate.
/lpt show to see the log of the events completed
/lpt info on/off to allow a message to appear upon completing an event.
How I believe bad luck protection works:
The idea for this add-on came when my wife and I would consistently get legendaries at a very predictable distance between each other, while doing identical legendary dropping events. This formulated the thought that there is a hard cap on bad luck protection and once it is reached, your next legendary dropping event is a guaranteed legendary. I still strongly believe this is true and have lots seen lots of data that supports this. This add-on is strongly rooted in this belief.
Note: You may receive a legendary at ANY point. Bad luck protection does not have to be reached to obtain a legendary. It is just the worst case scenario and happens fairly commonly.
November 2017 Blizzard drop rate changes:
I have seen a VERY large number of legendaries dropping well before the bad luck protection cap in the month of November. I believe blizzard modified drop rates of legendaries to drop much more frequently, resulting in players hitting bad luck protection cap much less frequently. If this is true, I believe it is an awesome change, as catching a new character up this late in the expansion can be a real struggle. Do I have proof? Nope. Do I have data that strongly suggests it? Yes.
Bad luck protection cap prediction in LPT:
Bad luck protection cap prediction uses a limited data set to gather weights for each legendary event. It is very likely the weights suffer from over fitting (match the data points that I have, but aren't a great real world predictor). Over time, these values have been honed to a point in which they are frequently predicting bad luck protection cap within 5-8 % of the actual cap.
My personal suggestion on farming legendaries:
Farming legendaries does not require a large amount of effort, nor a large amount of time. My typical path to hitting bad luck protection cap in 7 days consists of as many lesser invasions per day as possible (I usually do 9 or 10) and all emissary quest caches. Lesser invasions spawn every 2 hours, and stay active for 6 hours and can be done in 2-3 minutes each if you use the group finder tool and join a large group. I personally spend probably 30-40 minutes at most per day on lesser invasions, 10ish on the daily emissary, and bad luck protection cap is hit in a max of 7 days. Of course any additional farming you do will only reduce the time required to obtain a legendary, but most of the other events require significantly more effort and time.
Interested in helping?
To improve the accuracy of the stat weights for bad luck prediction and have obtained at least two legendaries on a single character since using this add-on, you may email me a single file that the add-on produces upon obtaining a legendary.
E-mail the file in the following directory (Note: after obtaining the legendary you must log your character off once to update this file): "WoW/WTF/Account/YourAccountName/SavedVariables/LegendaryProgressTracker.lua" to [email protected] . You are more than welcome to verify the contents of this file with a text editor such as notepad, only the information from the events this add-on tracks are included.
A graphical user interface with detailed information on progress of your current legendary progress as well as all other legendaries you have obtained on any character on your account with this addon (since v0.3.4).